Results of Completed Matches (June 30)
In the first round of the knockout stage, a big surprise already happened:
- Germany 1:1 Paraguay (3:4 on penalties): The German team, one of the tournament favorites, unexpectedly exited, losing to Paraguay in a penalty shootout. The main and extra time ended in a draw 1:1, and the Paraguayans won the penalty shootout.
-
Brazil 2:1 Japan: The Brazilians confirmed their status as favorites and confidently advanced to the round of 16, defeating the Japanese team.
-
Netherlands – Morocco: The match ended in a draw (1:1) and also went to a penalty shootout, which decided the winner – the Moroccan team advanced to the next stage.
These games will determine the participants of the round of 16. Here are the key matches of the day and predictions for them.
France – Sweden Prediction
The reigning World Cup runners-up will face the organized and tactically flexible Swedish team. France dominated the group, winning three matches and scoring 10 goals while conceding only 2. The trio of attackers Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olié is in excellent form – they have already scored 8 goals in the tournament.
Sweden, on the other hand, advanced to the knockout stage from third place in the group, but showed an unstable performance. A 5:1 victory over Tunisia was overshadowed by a crushing 1:5 defeat to the Netherlands. The key problem for the Swedes is a weak defense, which conceded 7 goals in 3 matches.
The winner of this match will face Paraguay in the round of 16.
Most Likely Prediction: France's victory (3:1).
Most experts and statistical models give an advantage to the French with a win probability of about 71%. It is noted that even if Sweden manages to contain the French attack in regular time, the "blue" team has enough depth in the squad to finish off the opponent in extra time.
Mexico – Ecuador Prediction
A very important match for one of the host nations. Mexico perfectly conducted the group stage: three wins with a goal difference of 6:0 – this is the best result in the country's history at World Cup tournaments. The team has not conceded in three consecutive matches on the tournament. Support from home fans at the legendary "Azteca" stadium will be a huge advantage.>
Ecuador, on the other hand, surprisingly defeated Germany (2:1) and took third place in the group. However, in the first two matches, the Ecuadorians did not score, indicating problems in the attack against organized defense. The winner of this match will face the winner of the England – DR Congo match.
Most Likely Prediction: Mexico's victory (1:0).
Statistical models give Mexico about 46% chance of winning in regular time against 24% for Ecuador. The overall probability of Mexico advancing to the round of 16 is estimated at 60%. Considering the strong defense of the hosts and the problems of the Ecuadorians with conversion, a win with a minimal score is predicted.
Cote d'Ivoire – Norway Prediction
An intriguing match between the experience of the Ivorian team and the youth and power of the Norwegians. Both teams made their first World Cup knockout stage in their history, making this match special. Cote d'Ivoire showed disciplined defense (conceded only 2 goals against Germany) and dangerous counterattacks.
Norway relies on its "superweapon" – Erling Haaland, who has already scored 4 goals in the tournament. However, the Scandinavian defense does not look reliable, conceding 9 goals in the last 5 matches. The key to the Ivorian team's success will be neutralizing Haaland and isolating him from his teammates, with which, as it is considered, they can deal better than other African teams.
Most Likely Prediction: Norway's victory (2:1).
Statistical models give Norway an advantage with a win probability of about 56% against 22% for Cote d'Ivoire. However, there are also opinions that the disciplined defense of Cote d'Ivoire can contain Haaland and take the game to a penalty shootout, where the African team has chances for a surprise. Nevertheless, most predictions lean towards Norway's victory with a score of 2:1.
England – DR Congo Prediction
The England team is considered an obvious favorite. The team won its group, securing two wins and a draw. In their squad, there are such stars as Harry Kane (3 goals in the tournament), Jude Bellingham, and Bukayo Saka. DR Congo, on the other hand, made its first World Cup knockout stage in history, showing character in matches against Portugal (1:1) and Uzbekistan (3:1).
Most Likely Prediction: A confident England victory with a scoreless draw (2:0 or 3:0).
Analysts agree that the gap in class between the teams is too large. It is predicted that England will keep its goalposts intact. The main threat for the English will be the forward of DR Congo, Yohan Vissa, who has already scored 3 goals in the tournament, but the overall level of the DR Congo team is clearly not enough for a surprise.
Belgium – Senegal Prediction
Two strong and experienced teams meet, which have players of top level. This match is expected to be very tough. Both teams are considered strong mid-table teams, capable of a lot in the knockout stage. Unlike other matches of the day, there is no clear favorite – equal strength opponents. The outcome is likely to be decided by one goal or a penalty shootout.