Betting on favorites: why it's not always profitable

Illusion of Exact Result

In the world of sports betting, the favorite is a team or athlete who, according to bookmakers and analysts, has more chances of winning than the opponent. This is “Barcelona” in a match against an underdog, Novak Djokovic in a match against a tennis player outside the top-100, and so on. The logic of a novice is simple: the lower the coefficient, the higher the chance of victory. However, in practice, this logic often becomes a path to losing the bankroll.

Betting on favorites is deceptively simple. It seems that choosing the strongest team is enough for guaranteed success. But sports reality is more complex: low coefficients, mass loads, hidden risks and psychological traps turn “obvious outcome” into one of the most dangerous strategies. In this article, we will analyze the mathematics of the issue, learn to read line movements and understand when betting on a favorite is really profitable, and when it is better to look at the underdog.

1. Why a low coefficient is not synonymous with profit

1.1. Coefficient and probability: what is hidden behind the numbers

The coefficient on a favorite is not just a number. It reflects the implied probability, which the market (bookmakers and players) assigns to a particular outcome. If a team is given a coefficient of 1.20, the implied probability is about 83%. However, the bookmaker margin (overround) means that the sum of implied probabilities of all outcomes exceeds 100%. This inflates the probability of the favorite and deflates the probability of the underdog.

Key problem: implied probability is not the true probability. A coefficient of 1.20 does not guarantee a win in 83% of cases. This is just the price the market has set, influenced by public opinion, media hype and large bets from professionals.

1.2. Pure mathematics of betting

Let's illustrate the problem with a simple example. Suppose you bet 1000 rubles on a favorite with a coefficient of 1.20. Your profit would be only 200 rubles if you win. To get a significant profit, the bet size must be very large, which increases the risk of losses. One unexpected draw or defeat of such a favorite can offset the profit from several successful bets.

Professional research confirms that it is impossible to consistently win on favorites. Analysis of matches in the Champions League shows that results can vary dramatically even within one tour: in one tour, the wins of favorites brought a conditional profit of 333 rubles per 100 rubles bet, while in the next tour, it was a loss of almost 400 rubles with the same approach. The difference in one winning outcome changes the result because «favorites» come with high or low coefficients.

1.3. Loads

Bookmaker coefficients are not just a forecast. They are a live indicator of player sentiment. When large bets are placed on a favorite (load), bookmakers are forced to further reduce its coefficient to balance the risks. This creates a «skewed» line.

Mass opinion, supported by hype and media image, exerts enormous pressure on the line. Research shows that there is a systematic bias in favor of favorites — bettors prefer to bet on them more often than is justified by the coefficients. However, this does not mean that bookmakers can always profit from it. On the contrary, there are data that coefficients more accurately reflect the real forecast of the match outcome, rather than just public preferences. This means that «playing against the crowd» — betting on the underdog — does not guarantee automatic profit, but opens up opportunities for finding value coefficients.

2. Hidden risks: when a favorite is not a favorite

2.1. Injuries and motivation

The most obvious, but often ignored risk is the loss of a key player. The absence of the main goalkeeper or forward can dramatically change the balance of forces. But even with a full squad, the favorite may not strive for a win. If the team has already secured its place in the playoffs or decided its tournament tasks, it may field a second squad or play without proper motivation.

2.2. Uncomfortable opponent and unstable form

Football statistics know many examples where a mid-table team has taken points from a giant over the years. These are “uncomfortable opponents.” Ignoring the history of previous meetings is a serious mistake.

In addition, the favorite may be in a crisis of form. A series of three to five matches without a win, even for a top club, is a clear signal that an automatic bet on it is extremely risky.

2.3. Line movement as a signal

Professional bettors rarely act randomly. Their large bets are an indicator for the entire market. If the coefficient on an obvious favorite is unreasonably rising (for example, from 1.50 to 1.80), this may mean that professionals are betting on its opponent. The opposite situation: if the coefficient on the underdog drops sharply (from 4.00 to 3.00), it is likely that insider information is in its favor. Sharp line movement without obvious news is almost always a signal that the market knows something.

3. When is it profitable to bet on a favorite? Practical strategies

3.1. Analysis, not faith

The main rule — never bet on a favorite blindly. No sympathy for the club or faith in its greatness. Only analysis.

3.2. Bets with a handicap (Asian handicap)

If the coefficient on a clean win for the favorite is too low (1.10–1.20), consider a bet with a negative handicap (-1, -1.5). This will increase the coefficient, but require the favorite to win by a certain margin. This type of bet is suitable when you are confident not just in the win, but in the dominance of the team.

3.3. Combining with other outcomes

Use express bets to combine several favorites into one bet. Multiplying coefficients allows you to get an acceptable final coefficient even from events with coefficients of 1.20–1.30. However, remember that the risk of an express bet is losing the entire bet due to one unexpected result.

Alternative — a bet on double chance (1X or X2). The coefficient on such an outcome is lower than on a clean win, but it protects you from a draw — the most common «obstacle» for bets on favorites.

4. Underdog: risk or value?

A bet on an underdog is not just “lottery.” It is a bet on value (value), when you believe the true probability of the underdog's victory is higher than what its coefficient implies.

When to look for an underdog?

• When the favorite is overestimated by the public (media hype).

• When the favorite has problems with the squad.

• When the underdog has a stylistic advantage (e.g., good defense against a powerful attack in adverse weather conditions).

Psychology of the masses. Most bettors subconsciously choose the “safe” path and bet on the favorite to be “in the team” and not feel alone. A bet on the underdog requires maturity and the ability to think independently of the crowd.

5. Bankroll management: how not to lose everything

5.1. Bet size

One of the main mistakes when betting on favorites is placing a too large bet. Novices often bet on “sure thing” half or even the entire bankroll. This is completely wrong. Even the most obvious favorite can lose or draw. The recommended bet size is no more than 3–5% of the total bankroll per event.

5.2. Discipline

Discipline is the ability to skip matches if you don't find convincing arguments for a bet. The temptation to bet on a favorite “just because” is great, but such bets often lead to losses. Professional bettors skip up to 70% of events because they don't see value in them.

6. Typical mistakes when betting on favorites

7. Psychology of betting on favorites

7.1. The “smart majority” effect

People tend to trust public opinion. If everyone around says “Barcelona” will beat “Leganes,” it's hard to bet against this psychologically. Betting on a favorite is a way to be “like everyone else,” avoid the feeling of loneliness, and not look foolish if the underdog loses. However, a successful bettor must be able to think independently.

7.2. Fear of missing out

If you missed a match where the favorite won convincingly, you may feel like you missed “easy” money. In the next match, you bet on the favorite automatically to avoid missing out. This is one of the most dangerous psychological traps. Every match is unique, and past results do not guarantee repetition.

7.3. Overestimating your knowledge

Many bettors believe that since they watch football for 20 years, they know everything about the teams. This is an illusion. Professional analysts from bookmakers use hundreds of metrics, which you don't have access to. Subjective opinion is rarely more accurate than the market. Therefore, it's important to rely not on intuition, but on numbers and facts.

8. Alternative approaches to betting on favorites

8.1. Bets on goals by the favorite

Instead of betting on the favorite's win, consider a bet on the individual total goals by the favorite (e.g., Over 1.5 or Over 2.5). This approach gives a higher coefficient and protects against a draw with a minimal score. If the favorite scores 2–3 goals but the match ends in a draw — the bet still wins.

8.2. Bets on corners and yellow cards

If the favorite clearly dominates but can't score, consider bets on statistics (corners, shots, possession). Coefficients on such outcomes are often higher than on a win, and the favorite almost always outperforms the underdog in these metrics.

8.3. Live bets on the favorite

The safest way to bet on a favorite is to do it during the match. If the favorite hasn't scored in the first half, its coefficient on a win increases. If you see that the team creates chances but can't convert them, a live bet can be much more profitable than before the match. However, this requires good real-time game analysis.

9. How to analyze favorites: a checklist for bettors

Conclusion: discipline is more important than a famous name

Betting on favorites is neither guaranteed to be profitable nor completely a failure. It is just one of the tools that requires discipline, analysis and understanding of market mechanisms.